An Assessment of the Scene in Facts –

A scene showing an Israeli drone flying over the skies of the city of Tyre in southern Lebanon.

**An Assessment of the Scene in Facts –**

**So that we do not remain prisoners of the question: will the war return or not?**

**The decisive security factor — the near-total breach of the Resistance:**

It is clear that **Netanyahu waged this war on us through intelligence**. He had in his hands a detailed security file exposing Hezbollah’s structure and operations—vertically and horizontally. Based on that, he directed wide-scale strikes, **assassinated commanders**, and **destroyed critical capabilities**. These blows were sufficient to **deny the Resistance the use of most of its heavy capabilities**, disabling years of prepared operational plans—from __Radwan units__ to __aerial and missile forces__.

All this happened through intelligence means alone. Without such a breach, **Netanyahu would never have dared to launch this war** against a massive arsenal that could have destroyed neighborhoods in Tel Aviv and fought Israel’s ground divisions in the Galilee!

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**What Now?**

The **balance of deterrence has shifted**, and **the balance of power now tilts in Israel’s favor**. Israel exploits this daily—through air raids, assassinations, occupation measures, and drone incursions—to keep Hezbollah **under continuous fire pressure**.

Then—and here we begin to prepare the answer—**the threat of renewed war** has become a __stick__ Netanyahu wields daily before the Americans, aiming to **disarm the Resistance**. But the Resistance remains firm: __“That is the devil’s dream in paradise.”__

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**The Result**

The Resistance had been caught in a **tight intelligence ambush** before the war—without realizing it. From Netanyahu’s perspective, the scene was enticing: a Resistance whose **military, security, and leadership units were exposed by 80–90%** to the enemy’s view!

Today, however—__putting aside talk of reconstruction__—at the very least, the effects of that security ambush **have largely ended**, or at least **its scope has significantly decreased**. Using the same analogy, not all Resistance units are now within full enemy visibility, due to **changes in structure, leadership shifts, and the creation of entirely new modes of resistance work**.

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**Will Israel Launch a New War?**

Based on the above, the answer seems **unlikely**—despite all the inflated threats forming part of a coordinated media campaign. Israel currently finds the present situation **advantageous**: it can keep exhausting the Resistance and maintaining it under pressure **without the risks of an open war**.

Yet this does **not completely rule out war**, especially with a figure like **Netanyahu**, backed by a **hawkish American lobby** eager to keep the Middle East simmering on the edge of conflict—or with **escalating daily strikes** as electoral deadlines approach inside both Israel and Lebanon.

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**Conclusion**

We were once in a **tight, near-perfect ambush**—its effects have now largely ended. We have entered an **unequal equation** that currently favors the enemy. However, **time and circumstance** may change that balance—especially as the global war landscape grows larger and more complex, possibly driving everyone into an entirely new reality.

__(By Hassan Hamza, journalist at Al-Manar)

__**🔵**[Link to the article in Arabic](https://t.me/almuraqb/188)