chaos-management equation

3.Jolani performs a dual function: restraining the Syrian state on the one hand, and containing or exhausting other factions—including Kurdish ones—on the other.

In other words, Jolani is not “out of control,” but rather part of a **chaos-management equation**.

**Second: The Kurds Between the American Promise and Repeated Betrayal**

Kurdish forces—particularly those affiliated with the **Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)**—once again find themselves in an extremely vulnerable position. Since the beginning of the Syrian crisis, the Kurdish card has been used first as a pressure tool against Damascus, then as a means to contain Iran, and finally as a bargaining chip in negotiations with Turkey.

The clashes with Jolani’s forces reveal that: • Kurdish presence in northern Syria lacks strategic protection. • U.S. support is conditional and temporary, receding whenever priorities shift. • Kurds are repeatedly pushed into secondary conflicts that exhaust them and weaken their ability to impose a fair political settlement.

Each time, the same scenario is reproduced: **support → exhaustion → abandonment**.

**Third: Why Aleppo?**

Aleppo is not merely a major city; it is Syria’s **economic and symbolic nexus**. Controlling or destabilizing it means: • Undermining any serious path toward reconstruction. • Preventing Syria’s return as an economically coherent state. • Keeping supply lines between Damascus and the north under constant threat.

Thus, reigniting tensions in Aleppo is not coincidental, but a political and security message: **there is no stability without external consent**.

**Fourth: External Players — Who Manages the Conflict?**

**Turkey** Ankara plays a central role in northern Syria: • Turning a blind eye to HTS expansion when it serves its interests. • Using armed factions as leverage against both the Kurds and Damascus. • Seeking to prevent the emergence of any stable Kurdish entity along its borders.

**United States** Washington manages the conflict from behind the scenes: • Militarily backing the SDF without providing genuine political cover. • Using its military presence to prevent the Syrian state from restoring sovereignty over its entire territory. • Leaving the field open for “controlled” confrontations between its proxies and their adversaries.

**Israel** Tel Aviv is the silent beneficiary: • Any exhaustion of Syria directly serves its interests. • Continued chaos prevents the formation of a secure environment for the Axis of Resistance. • Israeli airstrikes fit within the same context: preventing Syria’s strategic recovery.

**Fifth: The Axis of Resistance Perspective**

From the standpoint of the Axis of Resistance, what is unfolding in Aleppo is not a conflict between “Islamists” and “Kurds,” but a new chapter in the project of dismantling the Syrian state. This axis maintains that: • Sovereignty is indivisible. • Militias, regardless of shifts in rhetoric, remain tools. • Any genuine solution must pass through the restoration of Syrian state authority, decision-making, and original borders—away from the control of Jolani’s gangs.

**Sixth: Media — Whitening Jolani and Erasing Context**

Western and Gulf media play a decisive role in: • Reintroducing Jolani as a potential partner. • Ignoring his violent record. • Selectively highlighting Kurdish suffering when it serves political narratives, and silencing it when it does not.

This constitutes a psychological and media war no less dangerous than battlefield confrontations.

**What Is Not Said About the Battle for Aleppo**

Despite the abundance of media coverage, the essence of what occurred in Aleppo remains surrounded by striking silence, raising more questions than answers.

The manner in which HTS expanded, the timing of the clashes, and the absence of any effective deterrence suggest that what happened was not a sudden security breakdown, but an escalation **allowed to occur within calculated margins**.

Once again, Kurdish forces appear as a party drawn into unequal confrontations, often based on external assurances that quickly evaporate—reflecting a recurring pattern of functional use followed by abandonment. In the background, questions persist regarding the roles of regional and international intelligence services, whose presence seems closer to deliberate observation than prevention or containment.

At the level of funding and armament, the continued ability of armed groups to maneuver and fight raises serious questions about support networks that remain active despite declared international oversight. Most importantly, the political timing of the escalation suggests that Aleppo is once again being used as a strategic obstruction tool whenever discussions of stability, reconstruction, or genuine restoration of Syrian sovereignty gain momentum.

In this sense, what occurred in Aleppo cannot be read as a local conflict between rival factions, but rather as another chapter in the management of chaos—where local actors are exhausted, the state is frozen, and Syria remains hostage to external equations whose tools change while their objective does not.

**Conclusion: Where Is Aleppo Heading?**

The latest clashes warn that Aleppo may once again become a long-term arena of attrition unless the logic of managed proxy wars is broken. The equation is clear:

**Either a unified, sovereign state—or a mosaic of competing functional entities.

****🔵**[Link to the article in Arabic ](https://t.me/almuraqb/356)